Trump’s economy, by the numbers: July’s inflation spike was the largest in 6 months. Layoffs just hit their highest level since the pandemic. Manufacturing saw the biggest decline in years

Recent economic data under President Trump’s 2025 administration shows a notable inflation spike, increased layoffs reaching pandemic-era highs, and significant declines in manufacturing, consistent with the claim.

Economy Statement for the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee - U.S. Department of the Treasury
Source: home.treasury.gov

Economy Statement for the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee - U.S. Department of the Treasury
Source: home.treasury.gov

At a glance

Key Evidence

Verified August 12, 2025

July 2025 inflation spike was the largest in six months due to tariff-driven cost increases.nytimes.com apnews.com
Layoffs have reached pandemic-era highs with job gains slowing significantly under Trump’s 2025 presidency.democrats.org democrats.org
Manufacturing sector saw significant job losses and decline since January 2025 when Trump took office.democrats.org

The reporting

What the Evidence Shows

Inflation: Multiple sources confirm that inflation in July 2025 rose sharply, marking the largest increase in several months. This inflation surge is linked to tariff-related costs and supply chain disruptions under the current Trump administration, as reported by The New York Times and AP News.nytimes.com apnews.com apnews.com

Layoffs: Data indicates layoffs have risen to levels not seen since the pandemic period. The Democratic National Committee highlights that job gains are down and layoffs have spiked to pandemic-era highs during Trump’s current term.democrats.org democrats.org Treasury data also notes layoff rates remain elevated compared to prior periods.home.treasury.gov

Manufacturing: Manufacturing employment has experienced one of its largest declines in recent years, with job losses reported since Trump took office in January 2025. This aligns with reports of manufacturing sector contraction and economic challenges tied to tariffs and trade policies.democrats.org

Overall, while the claim is broadly accurate regarding these economic indicators under President Trump’s current administration, some nuances exist. For example, while layoffs are high relative to recent years, Treasury data suggests some layoff rates remain low compared to historical norms. Inflation is driven significantly by tariffs but also broader global factors. Thus, the statement is mostly true but simplified.

Primary trail