Multiple reputable sources confirm that UBS currently estimates a 93% chance of a U.S. Recession in 2025 based on recent economic data.
True
93% chance of a recession says UBS
UBS recession risk 2025: Recession alert! UBS puts US at 93% risk as economy slips into soggy territory - The Economic Times
Source: economictimes.indiatimes.com
At a glance
Verified September 14, 2025Key Evidence
UBS's own factor model analyzing recent economic data points to a 93% recession probability (TipRanks, Fortune).
Multiple news outlets report UBS citing an inverted yield curve and credit stress as key recession signals (The Economic Times, Ainvest).
Analysts note the risk of stagflation alongside recession risks, indicating complex economic challenges ahead (Fortune, Moguldom).
The reporting
What the Evidence Shows
UBS has publicly stated, supported by its proprietary economic models and analysis of 'hard data' from May to July 2025, that the probability of a recession in the U.S. This year stands at approximately 93%. This assessment is widely reported across various financial news outlets and platforms, including The Economic Times, Fortune, TipRanks, and Newsweek.
The data underpinning this forecast includes indicators such as an inverted yield curve, rising credit market pressures, weak employment growth, and inflationary concerns. UBS also highlights the risk of stagflation, a combination of stagnant growth and rising inflation, mirroring economic conditions reminiscent of the 1970s. While UBS's forecast is notably high and signals significant economic risk, it is consistent across multiple independent reports referencing the bank's analysis.
However, it is important to note that economic forecasts inherently carry uncertainty due to evolving market conditions and policy responses.
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Verified Sources10
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