JD Vance's claim that the 2020 Census had statistical errors resulting in undercounts in some Republican-leaning states is supported by evidence of state-level coverage errors, though the Census Bureau found no significant net national undercount.
Mostly True
JD Vance: "Another crazy thing that I had no idea about, but everybody, even Democrats actually admit this, that the census in 2020 had a major statistical error and what that meant is that you actually undercounted a few states that are Republican.
JD Vance chances of beating AOC, Pete Buttigieg and Gavin Newsom in 2028—Poll - Newsweek
Source: newsweek.com
At a glance
Verified August 10, 2025Key Evidence
The Census Bureau's Post-Enumeration Survey found a net coverage error of -0.24% nationally, not statistically different from zero.
census.govcensus.govCensus Bureau Releases Estimates of Undercount and Overcount in the 2020 Census
However, at least 14 states had incorrect counts with six states undercounted and eight overcounted.
heritage.orgheritage.orgCensus Bureau Errors Distort Congressional Representation for the States
Some of the undercounted states lean Republican, which supports Vance's claim about political implications.
The reporting
What the Evidence Shows
JD Vance stated that the 2020 Census had a major statistical error causing undercounts in several Republican states, a point he claims is acknowledged even by Democrats. This assertion aligns with documented findings that the 2020 Census did have coverage errors at the state level, with some states experiencing undercounts and others overcounts. Specifically:
The U.S. Census Bureau's Post-Enumeration Survey (PES) found no statistically significant net undercount or overcount at the national level, estimating a net coverage error close to zero.census.govcensus.govCensus Bureau Releases Estimates of Undercount and Overcount in the 2020 Census
However, state-level data revealed that at least 14 states had incorrect counts, with six states showing undercounts and eight showing overcounts.heritage.orgheritage.orgCensus Bureau Errors Distort Congressional Representation for the States
census.govcensus.gov2020 Census Undercounts in Six States, Overcounts in Eight
Some of the states with undercounts were Republican-leaning, which could affect congressional representation and federal funding allocations.heritage.orgheritage.orgCensus Bureau Errors Distort Congressional Representation for the States
The issue of census accuracy and its political implications has been widely discussed, with bipartisan acknowledgment of imperfections in the count.prb.orgprb.orgHow Accurate Was the 2020 Census—and Why Should You Care?
Therefore, while there was no major nationwide statistical error causing a net undercount, there were indeed significant state-level discrepancies that tended to undercount certain Republican states. This nuance means Vance's statement is mostly true but somewhat simplified, as it omits the complexity of overcounts in other states and the lack of a net national undercount.
Primary trail
Verified Sources7
Open source