James Talarico is now leading Republican Ken Paxton by 6 points.

Recent surveys from independent and institutional polling organizations show that James Talarico maintains an advantage over Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate contest. Specifically, polling data cited by regional media outlets and independent institutes place Talarico's margin within a narrow band of 4 to 6 points as campaign spending accelerates.maristpoll.marist.edumaristpoll.marist.edu2026 Midterm Elections in Texas September 2026Other Recent Polls: Other independent and institutional surveys—including those from Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) and the Marist Poll—have similarly shown Talarico maintaining narrow-to-moderate leads (e.g., margins ranging from 4...fox7austin.comfox7austin.comTalarico continues to lead polls as spending ramps up in Texas Senate raceBased on recent polling data and major media tracking of the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Texas, the claim that Democratic state Representative James Talarico is leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by 6 points is verified by recent...

While these surveys capture an active momentum shift for the Democratic candidate, political analysts emphasize that Texas retains a historically Republican lean and that Paxton continues to command substantial financial backing.texastribune.orgtexastribune.orgKen Paxton Third Quarter Fundraising Texas Senate Race 2026While Talarico has built momentum and leads in several recent public polls, political analysts note that Texas retains a traditional Republican lean, and Paxton continues to draw substantial financial backing and high-profile Republican...kvue.comkvue.comTexas Senate Talarico Paxton Recent PollWhile Talarico has built momentum and leads in several recent public polls While Talarico has built momentum and leads in several recent public polls, political analysts note that Texas retains a traditional Republican lean Because specific poll numbers can fluctuate slightly depending on the exact house effect or timing, the assertion that Talarico leads by roughly 6 points aligns closely with published survey ranges.