The Trump administration today told a federal appellate court that overturning tariffs could lead to a 1929-style depression that would endanger federal benefits like Social Security and Medicare.

The statement reflects a recent legal argument made by the Trump administration in 2025, during Donald Trump's second term as President, where government lawyers warned a federal appellate court that invalidating tariffs imposed under his administration could lead to a major economic downturn comparable to the Great Depression of 1929.

The administration contended that such an economic crisis would jeopardize the funding and sustainability of key federal social programs, including Social Security and Medicare, due to the potential collapse in government revenues and increased financial strain.

This argument was part of ongoing litigation challenging the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), with courts having ruled some tariffs illegal but allowing them to remain in effect pending appeals.

While the claim is dramatic and politically charged, it is grounded in the administration's legal strategy to maintain tariff authority by emphasizing potential economic risks. However, independent economic experts often debate the likelihood and scale of such catastrophic outcomes solely from tariff reversals.

Therefore, while the administration did make this claim publicly in court filings and statements, the actual probability of a 1929-style depression directly caused by overturning tariffs remains uncertain and contested.