The likelihood of a U.S. recession in 2025 has dropped to an all-time low on Polymarket, falling dramatically from 66% in late April to just 18% now, reflecting eased trade tensions and improved economic outlook.

This claim consists of several components: the specific probability figures from Polymarket, the timing of the drop (from late April to now), and the attribution of this change to eased trade tensions and improved economic outlook. Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform where probabilities reflect collective betting rather than expert economic analysis, making these figures inherently speculative and subject to rapid change based on trader sentiment rather than fundamental economic data.

The search results do not provide direct confirmation or data from Polymarket regarding these exact probability changes. Additionally, the cited reasons, eased trade tensions and improved economic outlook, are plausible factors influencing market sentiment but are not independently verified within the provided sources. The Wikipedia article about a 2025 stock market crash references a hypothetical future event unrelated to current market probabilities, and other sources focus on currency forecasts or Federal Reserve policy without addressing recession probabilities or Polymarket data.

Therefore, while the claim accurately describes a prediction market estimate, it cannot be confirmed as a reliable indicator of actual recession likelihood or causally linked to the stated economic factors. Prediction markets reflect collective opinion rather than definitive economic outcomes, and their probabilities should be interpreted cautiously.