Fact-check analysisVerified as of October 11, 2025Curated by FactVerify
True

22 states + DC, in or near recession per Moody’s Analytics, Oct 2025, includes Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia & Wyoming (8 Red, 15 Blue)

The claim that 22 states plus the District of Columbia are in or near recession as of October 2025 is true because multiple independent and reliable sources, including Moody’s Analytics and major news outlets, consistently report this assessment with largely matching state lists.

Map Shows Which States Are at High Risk of Recession - Newsweek

Map Shows Which States Are at High Risk of Recession - Newsweek

Source: newsweek.com

At a glance

Key Evidence

Verified October 11, 2025
  • Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi publicly stated that 22 states plus DC are in or near recession.

  • Multiple news outlets including Newsweek, Axios, Fortune, and Yahoo Finance published matching lists of these states in early October 2025.

  • The economic weakness is noted despite national GDP growth, underscoring localized downturns.

The reporting

What the Evidence Shows

Multiple reputable sources from October 2025 confirm that Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi identified 22 states plus DC as being in a recession or on the brink of one. These states include Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

The lists across sources such as Newsweek, WTNH, KSN, Yahoo Finance, Mint, Axios, and others show strong agreement on these states. The claim about the political breakdown (8 Red states and 15 Blue states) aligns with the known political leanings of these states but is less emphasized in the sources.newsweek.comnewsweek.comMap Shows Which States Are at High Risk of Recessionwtnh.comwtnh.comConnecticut is one of 22 states in a recession or on the brink: Moody’s+4 more

Additionally, these reports highlight that this regional recession occurs despite overall U.S. GDP growth around 3.8%, indicating uneven economic conditions across states. The consistency across at least ten independent news reports citing Moody’s Analytics provides high confidence in the accuracy of this claim.

Primary trail

Verified Sources10

Map Shows Which States Are at High Risk of Recession

newsweek.com
Open source

Connecticut is one of 22 states in a recession or on the brink: Moody’s

wtnh.com
Open source

Kansas among states that are in a recession or on the brink, Moody’s says

ksn.com
Open source
Keep exploring

Where to go next

Continue with the evidence, catch up on the week, or save this check for later.