U. S. birth rate is below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman required to maintain stable population without immigration.

The U.S. Birth rate is currently below the replacement fertility rate of approximately 2.1 births per woman, which is the level needed to maintain a stable population without immigration.

Will births in the US rebound? Probably not. - Brookings
Source: brookings.edu

Will births in the US rebound? Probably not. - Brookings
Source: brookings.edu

At a glance

Key Evidence

Verified August 3, 2025

Brookings reports a drop from 2.12 in 2007 to about 1.64 in 2020, well below replacement fertility.brookings.edu
The Congressional Budget Office projects continued fertility rates below 2.1 births per woman through mid-century.cbo.gov cbo.gov
The Penn Wharton Budget Model also confirms a current U.S. Fertility rate near 1.7 births per woman.budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu

The reporting

What the Evidence Shows

Multiple authoritative sources confirm that the total fertility rate (TFR) in the United States has been below the replacement level of about 2. 1 births per woman for several years. This replacement rate accounts for the number of births needed to sustain a population size in the absence of immigration, factoring in mortality rates and sex ratios.

Recent data indicate that the U.S. TFR has declined from around 2. 12 in 2007 to approximately 1. 6 to 1.

7 births per woman in recent years, including 2024 and early 2025 figures. This sustained sub-replacement fertility implies that without immigration, the U.S. Population would eventually begin to shrink, as projected by demographic models such as those from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The decline is driven by various social and economic factors, including delayed childbearing and lower birth rates among younger women.

While immigration currently offsets this decline, the intrinsic birth rate remains below replacement level.

Primary trail