Fact-check analysisVerified as of July 14, 2025Curated by FactVerify
Misleading

56% Of Californians Favor Secession From The U.S.

While some recent polls indicate that a majority of Californians believe the state would be better off if it peacefully seceded, the actual percentage of those explicitly favoring secession is significantly lower, typically around 30-44%.

FactVerify

FactVerify

Source: factverify.com

At a glance

Key Evidence

Verified July 14, 2025
The reporting

What the Evidence Shows

The claim that "56% of Californians favor secession from the U.S." conflates two related but distinct poll questions. Recent polling by the Independent California Institute found that approximately 56-58% of respondents said California would be "better off" if it peacefully seceded from the United States and maintained a friendly relationship with the U.S.san.comsan.com'Calexit'? As rift grows with DC, more Californians favor secessionthehill.comthehill.comMore Californians than ever want to secede from USbbc.combbc.comWhat if California seceded from the US?

However, this does not directly translate to explicit support for secession as a political action. Other polls, including one cited by Reuters/Ipsos and other sources, show that only about 29-44% of Californians actually support California seceding from the U.S.newsweek.comnewsweek.comMost Californians Believe They'd Be Happier if State Secededbbc.combbc.comWhat if California seceded from the US? This distinction is important because expressing a belief that California might be better off on its own is not the same as actively favoring or supporting secession as a policy or political goal.

Additionally, there is no constitutional provision for state secession, making actual secession legally and politically improbable.newsweek.comnewsweek.comCalifornia Secession Has 'No Credibility'—But the Anger Is Real The claim also lacks context about how questions were phrased and the difference between hypothetical benefits and active support.

Therefore, stating flatly that 56% favor secession overstates the level of explicit support and can mislead by implying a majority actively want California to leave the U.S., which is not supported by most polling data.

Primary trail

Verified Sources7

Poll: Californians ready to govern themselves, stop just short of secession

ic.institute
Open source

56% Of Californians Favor Secession From The U.S., New Poll Finds

newsbreak.com
Open source

Most Californians Believe They'd Be Happier if State Seceded

newsweek.com
Open source
Keep exploring

Where to go next

Continue with the evidence, catch up on the week, or save this check for later.

Share or return