Tariffs are gonna set off a recession or set off inflation is just not in the data. The Big Beautiful Bill will add $10,000 to the average family's income.

The statement that tariffs will neither trigger a recession nor inflation contradicts some economic analyses indicating that tariff increases can raise costs for consumers and businesses, potentially contributing to inflationary pressures and slower economic growth. The Yale Budget Lab's research suggests that recent tariff hikes have reduced after-tax incomes for most U.S. Households, particularly among the bottom 80 percent, which challenges the claim that tariffs are benign in their economic impact.budgetlab.yale.edubudgetlab.yale.eduCombined Distributional Effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and of Tariffs

Regarding the Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), while the White House and some supporters claim it will increase average family income by over $10,000 annually, independent fact-checkers such as FactCheck. Org and PolitiFact have found these figures to be exaggerated or overly optimistic.factcheck.orgfactcheck.orgUnraveling the Big Beautiful Bill Spinpolitifact.compolitifact.comWhite House exaggerates added take-home pay estimate for families under ‘Big... The bill includes tax provisions like expanding the SALT deduction cap and increasing child tax credits, which may benefit some families, but analyses indicate the benefits are unevenly distributed and may not reach an average $10,000 increase for all families.

Additionally, some experts caution about the bill's impact on deficits and long-term economic growth.taxfoundation.orgtaxfoundation.orgWill the Big Beautiful Bill Lead to an Economic Boom or Just Modestly Higher... Therefore, while the bill may provide financial relief to certain households, the sweeping claim of a $10,000 average increase is misleading without context or qualification.