Fact-check analysisVerified as of September 5, 2025Curated by FactVerify
False

97% of guns are in red states, 97% of gun violence is in blue states.

The claim that 97% of guns are in red states and 97% of gun violence is in blue states is not supported by credible data and is contradicted by multiple authoritative sources.

The “Red” vs. “Blue” Crime Debate and the Limits of Empirical Social Science

The “Red” vs. “Blue” Crime Debate and the Limits of Empirical Social Science

Source: manhattan.institute

At a glance

Key Evidence

Verified September 5, 2025
The reporting

What the Evidence Shows

The claim that "97% of guns are in red states" is misleading. Available data indicates that gun ownership is widespread across both red and blue states, with no credible source confirming such an extreme concentration of firearms exclusively in red states.

The assertion that "97% of gun violence is in blue states" is also false. Multiple reputable analyses, including those from the Manhattan Institute, Ms. Magazine, and Forbes, show that gun violence rates and gun death rates are generally higher in red (Republican-led) states than in blue (Democratic-led) states.manhattan.institutemanhattan.instituteThe “Red” vs. “Blue” Crime Debate and the Limits of Empirical Social Scienceforbes.comforbes.comRed States Have Higher Gun Death Rates Than Blue States. Here’s Why+1 more

Lead Stories conducted a fact check specifically addressing this claim and found it to be a hoax, clarifying that the data does not support the idea that 97% of guns are in areas accounting for only 3% of gun violence.leadstories.comleadstories.comFact Check: 97% Of Guns NOT In Areas Of US That Account For 3% Of Gun Violence

Politifact and other fact-checking organizations emphasize that areas with higher gun ownership tend to have higher rates of firearm deaths and injuries, contradicting the notion that more guns correlate with less gun violence.politifact.compolitifact.comA map spreading across social media claims that portions of the U.S. with more...

Some social media posts and informal discussions (e.g., Quora answers) attempt to rationalize or explain the claim by suggesting illegal firearms and gang activity concentrate gun violence in certain urban blue areas, but these explanations lack rigorous empirical support and do not align with broader statistical evidence.quora.comquora.comWhy is it that 97% of American guns are in red areas of red states and blue...quora.comquora.comWhy is there more gun violence in red states than blue states?

Analyses from the Center for American Progress Action indicate cities in blue states tend to be safer from gun violence compared to cities in red states, further undermining the claim.americanprogressaction.orgamericanprogressaction.orgRELEASE: New CAP Action Analysis Finds Cities in Blue States Are Consistently...

In summary, the claim oversimplifies complex patterns of gun ownership and violence, misrepresents data distributions, and is contradicted by multiple independent sources. The reality is that red states generally have higher rates of gun deaths despite varying levels of gun ownership across all states.

Primary trail

Verified Sources10

Firearm Violence in the United States

publichealth.jhu.edu
Open source

Why is it that 97% of American guns are in red areas of red states and blue...

quora.com
Open source

Fact Check: 97% Of Guns NOT In Areas Of US That Account For 3% Of Gun Violence

leadstories.com
Open source
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