Recent polling from mid-2025 indicates that about one-third of Latino voters who supported Donald Trump in the 2024 election are not firmly committed to voting Republican in the 2026 midterms and may lean toward Democrats.
Mostly True
New polling indicates that 1/3 of Latino voters who voted for Trump appear set to abandon the Republican Party and vote Democrat in the 2026 midterms.
Exploring why more Latinos voted for Trump and what it means for future elections - PBS News
Source: pbs.org
At a glance
Verified August 6, 2025Key Evidence
The July 2025 Equis Research poll explicitly states that one-third of Latinos who voted for Trump are not set on voting Republican in 2026.
weareequis.usweareequis.usJuly 2025 Poll on Latinos, Trump and the Economy
The New York Times article from August 5, 2025, reports that many Latinos who voted for Trump are uncertain about supporting Republicans again due to economic concerns.
nytimes.comnytimes.comG.O.P. Bets Big on Hispanic Voters With New Texas Map
Roll Call highlights that Republican gains among Latino voters will be tested in the 2026 midterms, indicating potential volatility.
rollcall.comrollcall.comRepublican gains among Latino voters face 2026 test in California
The reporting
What the Evidence Shows
Multiple recent polls and analyses from reputable sources in mid-2025 show a notable shift or uncertainty among Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024. Specifically, a July 2025 poll by Equis Research found that approximately one-third of Latino Trump voters are not set on voting Republican in the upcoming 2026 midterm elections. This suggests a potential drift away from the GOP among this demographic segment.
Key factors influencing this shift include dissatisfaction with the economy, which a majority of Latinos rate poorly, and mixed feelings about Trump's second term policies. While Trump has made significant inroads with Latino voters compared to previous elections, the durability of this support is uncertain, especially in key states like California and Texas where demographic shifts and redistricting play roles.
However, it is important to note that these findings reflect current polling snapshots rather than definitive future voting behavior. Voter preferences can evolve as the 2026 midterms approach, influenced by campaign dynamics, policy developments, and broader political context.
In summary:
About one-third of Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024 are currently not committed to voting Republican in 2026.
Economic dissatisfaction is a major factor driving this uncertainty.
The GOP's gains among Latino voters face tests in key states ahead of the midterms.
Polling data is from mid-2025 and reflects current trends rather than guaranteed outcomes.
Primary trail
Verified Sources7
Open source