The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September 2025 is widely reported to be around 91-92%, reflecting strong market expectations for a rate reduction.
Mostly True
The probability of a September rate cut is now 91.4%.
Fed Rate Cut Probability for September Soars to 92%
Source: coinedition.com
At a glance
Verified August 6, 2025Key Evidence
The CME FedWatch Tool shows probabilities around 91-92% for a September rate cut.
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Some financial institutions like Goldman Sachs anticipate multiple rate cuts starting in September.
Contrarily, some analysts argue the Fed may hold rates due to inflation concerns.
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The reporting
What the Evidence Shows
Multiple recent financial news sources and market data tools, such as the CME FedWatch Tool, indicate that the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September 2025 is approximately 91. 4% to 92. 2%.
This consensus is driven by recent weak U.S. Employment data and shifting market sentiment favoring a rate cut to support economic growth. However, some analysts and commentators remain cautious, noting that the Federal Reserve governors have expressed concerns about inflation risks and may want more data before committing to a rate cut. Thus, while market-implied probabilities are very high, there remains some debate among experts about the certainty of the cut.
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